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Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season
September Week One 10L.JOSEPHINE 99L.INVEST NRL's showing a new invest, latest wave coming off Africa, right on the coast. --Patteroast 05:28, 1 September 2008 (UTC) :NHC's got it at medium risk. --Patteroast 06:26, 1 September 2008 (UTC) ::Here comes...Josephine? I haven't seen an invest this close to the coast so far this year. We could have 10 storms before the peak of the season even arrives! 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:35, 1 September 2008 (UTC) :::Although it hasn't formed yet, I predict TS Josephine on the 3rd with a pass near Fogo Island, Cape Verde, then a cat. 3 pass near Bermuda to the east on the 11th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Musquodobit Harbour, Nova Scotia on the 14th, then a TS landfall near Wood Islands, PEI on the 15th, then a TD landfall near Elmira, PEI on the 15th, then a EX-TD landfall near Cape Ray, Newfoundland on the 16th. 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:08, 1 September 2008 (UTC) ::::God, here we go again. This has just been an incredible stretch, starting with Fay. We've had four storms in the past week. That's 2005 sh!t right there. I doubt it'll continue like 2005 did but the past ten days have been ridiculous. I don't know what I'm going to do with regards to school. I was going to leave today, but with the conditions in Mobile being what they are, I don't know if that's a good idea. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:39, 1 September 2008 (UTC) :::::Four numbered/named systems on the map at once would be quite the sight, for sure. If going by Wiki's list of when systems were active in 2005, I'm not sure even they ever got above a 3-systems scenario. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:49, 1 September 2008 (UTC) NHC now has it as highest potential: A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. Seasos's going wild. Isfisk 18:11, 1 September 2008 (UTC) :OMG, HWRF turns it into a re-Vince!! If the season's this crazy, and there are ten storms before it usually peaks, then my 20 storms might actually be un underestimate. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:12, 1 September 2008 (UTC) ::Chill out, HWRF is on drugs. This is the African wave nowhere near the North Atlantic. Guillaume, you are correct, 2005 never had more than three named storms active at once (Maria, Nate and Ophelia from 06Z Sep 7-12Z Sep 10), which we have now. However, that threesome were actually all hurricanes for a brief time (about three hours between 18Z Sep 8 and 00Z Sep 9). The Atlantic has had four hurricanes active at once twice before (1893 and 1998). This appears to be the Atlantic record for both simultaneous hurricanes and simultaneous TCs. Going worldwide, the Eastern Pacific, believe it or not, holds the record for most tropical cyclones active simultaneously in a single basin. On August 26, 1974, five EPAC storms were active at once: Hurricane Ione, Hurricane Joyce, Tropical Storm Kirsten, Tropical Storm Lorraine and Hurricane Maggie. CPAC Tropical Depression Olive was also active until 06Z, bringing the day's TC total to ''six! The Western Pacific has had three major hurricanes active at once (1987; Freda, Gerald and Holly) as well as two Category 5's active at once (1997 is the only time I know of, the South Pacific also achieved this in 1998). -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:24, 1 September 2008 (UTC) :::Dammit. Gustav got its final advisory before Ten could become Josephine. Oh, well. At least we got simultaneous advisory for Gustav, Hanna, Ike and TD-10 at 5 AM, which is already impressive.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 13:53, 2 September 2008 (UTC) Tropical Depression Ten NRL's got it listed as 10L.NONAME. Judging by the language the NHC is using ("THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 AM AST."), I'd have to assume that we'll get word from NHC shortly. --Patteroast 08:27, 2 September 2008 (UTC) :Well that didn't take long. Should be Josephine later today. --Patteroast 08:36, 2 September 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Josephine It's official. Albireo 15:13, 2 September 2008 (UTC) :Fishie. That's my prediction. I think a weakness in the ridge will eventually develop and allow it to recurve. And from what NHC is saying, Josephine may not even become a hurricane. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:37, 3 September 2008 (UTC) ::Starting to look like it won't even last long enough to recurve... --Patteroast 21:44, 3 September 2008 (UTC) ::Now expected to maintain itself as a TS. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:00, 4 September 2008 (UTC) :::Incidentally, there's apparently a bug on the NHC system. Well, either that, or else Josie has experienced the most cataclysmic pressure drop ever witnessed on earth...;-)(It's a bug, obviously)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:22, 5 September 2008 (UTC) ::::The Bug is now fixed - the central pressure on NHC was reported as 0MB instead of the proper 1002 MB :-D--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:25, 5 September 2008 (UTC) :::::Long term NHC track, while forecasting potential dissipation, calls for a steady intensification when Jo reaches about where Ike is now. Squarethecircle 02:01, 5 September 2008 (UTC) ::::::Josie's done. That trough is just too much for her; I don't think she can recover. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:10, 6 September 2008 (UTC) Remnants Big flare-up of convection for the remnants of Josephine. I'd be surprised if this wasn't mentioned in the 2am TWO as it's definitely a threat down the line. There's still lots of water ahead of her. Bob rulz 02:43, 11 September 2008 (UTC) :Now 91L on NRL. TWO states that it's only partially the remnants of ol' Josie. Bob rulz 19:31, 11 September 2008 (UTC) ::She's not impressing me at the moment. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:03, 13 September 2008 (UTC) 90L.INVEST AoI: East of Virgin Islands NHC has it at low-risk. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:35, 1 September 2008 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Now an invest. Not much chance in the short-term, but this could be yet another threat down the line. Bob rulz 20:13, 1 September 2008 (UTC) AoI: West of Josephine CMC developes it as a separate system. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:17, 2 September 2008 (UTC) AoI: Off Guinea This system might not look too impressive, but the huge wave behind it is expected to develop by many models. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:17, 2 September 2008 (UTC) :Yesterday, that wave blew me away but now all that impressive convection has vanished. I also think it's too close to Josephine and is getting a face-full of her shear. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:45, 3 September 2008 (UTC) AoI: Around Tampico, Mexico There's this interesting swirl of low pressure on satellite. It looks like it has an eye, but no defined circulation, and it's over land, but heavier convection lies in the Gulf of Mexico. It looks like it's moving west, but it has some potential to perhaps influence Ike. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:18, 7 September 2008 (UTC) Week Two 91L.INVEST 91L.INVEST North-East of the Dominican Republic, according to Navy/NRL. Not appeared on NHC yet. Not been tracking Josie's remnants, so not sure if they're linked? - Salak 16:00, 11 September 2008 (UTC) :It's possible that these are Josephine's remnants. Will be interesting to see what the NHC says in the 2pm TWO. This looks to have a favorable environment and may be a threat down the road, meaning relatively soon in this case. Bob rulz 17:33, 11 September 2008 (UTC) ::TWO says it's partially the remnants of Josephine. Looks like we'll have a TD11/Kyle if this forms. Needs a huge shot of convection though. Bob rulz 19:30, 11 September 2008 (UTC) Wow, it looks like it just got completely ripped apart. There's nothing there anymore. Bob rulz 06:27, 14 September 2008 (UTC) 92L.INVEST AoI: Central Atlantic Debuting in the 8PM TWO is a tropical wave 1400 miles east of the Leewards.--L.E./ 01:23, 13 September 2008 (UTC) :This one has a shot a couple of days down the road but right now it doesn't look very healthy, although convection has improved a little bit overnight. Bob rulz 10:21, 13 September 2008 (UTC) ::At this early stage, this disturbance looks reasonably well organized and NHC says conditions may improve in a few days. Definately one to watch. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:07, 13 September 2008 (UTC) 92L.INVEST Now 92L on NRL. Bob rulz 18:36, 13 September 2008 (UTC) AoI: East of Nicaragua A convective blob. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:01, 14 September 2008 (UTC) :CMC brings it into the Pacific and back into the Gulf, ie. Texas. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:34, 15 September 2008 (UTC) ::Is this the low-probability formation potential storm?? 03:30, 20 September 2008 (UTC) :::No, the low-prob is in the other AoI in the SW Caribbean. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:36, 20 September 2008 (UTC) Week Three "There are no tropical cyclones at this time"--totally clean TWO. L.E./ 00:19, 16 September 2008 (UTC) :For the first time in a frigging MONTH, might I add. (August 15 - Fay forming - to September 14 - Ike going extra-tropical). And a month of nasty storms, what with three serious contenders for retirment and a fourth that has at least an outside chance, too. So very, very, very nice to finally get something of a quiet spell. Hopefully it'll last, but...yeah. "Eye of the storm" sounds more like it. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 02:22, 16 September 2008 (UTC) ::The Atlantic's tired out. I don't anticipate any activity for about a week or so, and even then, a low prob. wait-and-see invest. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:20, 17 September 2008 (UTC) :::Yeah, but the problem is, even if we get a good week's break after Ikey, that's still another four weeks or so before the rough part of the season is over. As I said, eye of the storm. A few days, maybe seven or ten, of quiet before things get a little hectic again.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 02:07, 18 September 2008 (UTC) AoI: Gulf of Africa thing Maybe this will die tomorrow but hear me out: The little notch in Africa just north of the equator. There is a wave on the coast there that is clearly rotating and has well-organized convection over the center, as can be seen here. It appears to be moving West or a bit south of west so it will continue to have access to warm water. We will have a record-breaker if this continues developing and moving W-WSW as it is now. -Winter123 06:08, 18 September 2008 (UTC) :The part i was looking at has fizzled but the eastern part has intensified. Doesn't appear to be moving much, just drifting west and there's still a definite surface low. -Winter123 19:56, 18 September 2008 (UTC) ::An elongated E-W low at about 9N but i feel the western part, now emerging off the coast, is the biggest threat. When it emerges it will escape the shear thats well north over the azores (which is starting to look like Vince #2) and have a very good chance to develop. -Winter123 05:58, 19 September 2008 (UTC) 11L. KYLE AoI: SE Caribbean Some Pretty mean convection. Remnants of Josephine are caught up in an ULL over Bermuda so this is the wave behind Josephine. Horrible shear atm but if it let's up this could spin up quick. -Winter123 06:21, 18 September 2008 (UTC) :Has moved south and stalled over southern islands. I see surface rotation starting on the east side. Meanwhile the ULL which was shearing it is moving west. I have no idea how in anyone's right mind they wouldn't call this an invest. -Winter123 19:35, 18 September 2008 (UTC) :::(same system, merged) -Winter123 05:53, 19 September 2008 (UTC) Up as low-risk on NHC. Shear expected to decrease over the next few days. Expected to enter warm water. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:51, 18 September 2008 (UTC) :I've heard that this is not 93L but that seems to be unnoficial. 2007Astro'sHurricane 01:12, 19 September 2008 (UTC) 93L. INVEST Official now, expected to head near Hispanola. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:09, 20 September 2008 (UTC) :As if there ever was any doubt given the season so far...--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 15:15, 20 September 2008 (UTC) ::GFDL predicts the system to become a cat. 3 and gives Bermuda cat. 3 winds! HWRF follows a similar forecast but weaker and farther west. Both GFDL and HWRF suggest a possible cat. 1 landfall on Long Island. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:43, 20 September 2008 (UTC) :::The low pressure center appears to be moving NNE, and will probably clip the eastern end of Puerto Rico. Afterthat it should execute a more northwesterly turn...and strengthening is predicted by about tau 48 and a tropical depression could form. By about tau 96, a strengthening subtropical ridge is forecast to bring the system near the East coast of the United States. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:12, 21 September 2008 (UTC) ::::This one's actually kinda interesting. I don't know what the conditions are like east of the Bahamas, but if it survives interacting with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, we could be looking at something here. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:18, 21 September 2008 (UTC) :::::Up to high risk on NHC... this could easily be a TD today. --Patteroast 13:07, 21 September 2008 (UTC) ::::::Models are suggesting the system will affect New England, between South Carolina and Maine ie. New York, could skip east of Puerto Rico. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:16, 21 September 2008 (UTC) :::::::STDS issued...recon being sent. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:57, 21 September 2008 (UTC) Wow, this thing had a happy night's sleep! I'd be stunned if this level of organization doesn't warrent advisories. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:36, 21 September 2008 (UTC) :Still no surface circulation, but it could turn into a TS by the time it crosses eastern Puerto Rico. By extending the models, CMC predicts a cat. 2 landfall on Little Egg Harbor, New Jersey, GFDL predicts a cat. 1 landfall on Assateague Island, Maryland, GFS predicts a TS landfall on Moser River, Nova Scotia, mm5fsu-merge predicts a cat. 1 landfall on Yorktown, Virginia, NOGAPS predicts a TS landfall on Carolina Beach, North Carolina, and UKMET predicts the system to be absorbed by the nor'easter and for that storm to make a TS-strength landfall on St. Catherines Island, Georgia. Even SHIPS seems to peak the storm at cat. 2 strength. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:02, 21 September 2008 (UTC) ::HWFI and GFDI are getting alarmingly close to NYC. NYC is one of the most vulnerable cities in the US to a major hurricane disaster (only Miami and New Orleans are at higher risk among large American cities, maybe Houston but it's inland). Worse is that most New Yorkers would laugh at you if said it, simply because it's been forever since a hurricane has hit anywhere in the region. It wouldn't take much, marginal Cat. 2 and up would be a very bad situation for them. They'll get one up there some day, it's just a matter of time. The 1938 storm, which was a Cat. 3 and killed almost 700 people, brought hurricane-force winds to Queens. And in 1893, a Cat. 1 passed right over Manhattan. Yesterday was the 70th anniversary of the '38 storm, by the way. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:52, 22 September 2008 (UTC) :::IIRC, there have been two hurricanes to directly impact Manhattan - the 1893 storm, and of course the Norfolk/East Coast storm of 1821. The damage reports on both are inconclusive, but the damage they would do today, given that they did similar damage as when they struck, would be incredible. Now, I think the GFDL is a little too far north - the consensus calls for more of a Delaware sort of track, if that - but NYC should bookmark the NHC for the next week or so. If you're in the sort of situation they could be in, you don't want to end up on the wrong side of the deal when a few minutes a day could have saved your life. Anyways, like Dolly, Gustav, etc. before it, 93L is having trouble organizing - probably due to land interaction, and maybe shear - but those factors will decrease over the next few days, as per the NHC, and so it shouldn't be long before No. 11. Squarethecircle 03:03, 23 September 2008 (UTC) ::::It's nearly stationary now, back up to high-risk. Models are agreeing on a landfall around Nova Scotia or Maine as a TS. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:26, 23 September 2008 (UTC) :::::Hispaniola not allowing it to develop. Then when it gets pulled north it'll be sheared too much to develop. 60mph TS max (likely 50), probably scrape Bahamas, NC, Boston. NEXT. -Winter123 03:30, 24 September 2008 (UTC) ::::::Woah! 2 high potential for a TC formation! 93L is still playing with us! Storm's Eye 14:41, 24 September 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Kyle Guess this is what happens when you stop paying attention to the Atlantic in September ... I stop looking at updates a few days and look, a storm! Albireo 21:04, 25 September 2008 (UTC) :Hispaniola had torn the disturbance up but it reorganized rather quickly. I was surprised they initialized it as a tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters found winds that supported that. Nova Scotia shouldn't like the forecast for this thing. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:27, 25 September 2008 (UTC) ::The current NHC forecast makes it the worst storm in Yarmouth, Nova Scotia since Noel of 2007. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:45, 25 September 2008 (UTC) :::Oooo... never seen that before. Are the black text in white disk extratropical location dots on the forecast maps a new thing? - Salak 23:34, 25 September 2008 (UTC) When did Juan get his name changed? -ZOMG! 23:49, 25 September 2008 (UTC) :Uhh, that was rather random. 2003. Yeah, Salek, they changed it recently. Track's shifted west very close to the eastern tip of Maine. It's been nearly 40 years since a hurricane made landfall in Maine (Gerda, '69), could we see another? -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 13:49, 26 September 2008 (UTC) ::LOL WHAT? I already knew that. I was trying to point out Monday is the 5 year anniversary, and there's a chance Kyle could make landfall then. How eerie and ironic would that be? By the ''when did Juan get his name changed, I didn't mean literally, I ment as in when did he become Kyle? But now it's looking less likely to become a cat2. -ZOMG! 04:01, 27 September 2008 (UTC) AoI: SW Caribbean Up on NHC as low-risk. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:43, 20 September 2008 (UTC) :Not a chance, it's too close to land and the wind shear's not letting up down there. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:16, 21 September 2008 (UTC) AoI: SW of Cape Verde Some models predict development, but this one's really far south. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:43, 20 September 2008 (UTC) Potential AoI: Bahamas May head north, possibly form a nor-easter or subtropical system on Atlantic coast, but will likely be blocked by the high and move west and be influenced by 93L. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:43, 20 September 2008 (UTC) :Pass the bong; you've had your share. That's an empty plot of ocean there, señor. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:15, 21 September 2008 (UTC) ::See below AoI, SE of Carolinas, merged into the precuror nor'easter low. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:28, 23 September 2008 (UTC) AoI: Gulf of Mexico Or, maybe this is the precuror system for the nor'easter. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:04, 21 September 2008 (UTC) :See below AoI, SE of Carolinas, merged into precuror nor'easter low. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:29, 23 September 2008 (UTC) AoI: SW of Portugal Wow, this must be the subtropical low that spun off Mauritania. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:24, 21 September 2008 (UTC) :Fight to get it named! This formed the same way as Vince in 2005. It was an ULL and i alluded to this possibly developing about 2 days ago (see "gulf of africa thing", last post) but i had no idea it would happen! It burrowed down and became tropical and is now about to make landfall where vince did! :Satellite :Hit "animate" at the top and click full size, then "Most Recent" or if its been a while since i posted this hit "Every Other" or "every fourth" since it's about to get sheared apart. -Winter123 23:13, 21 September 2008 (UTC) 94L.INVEST AoI: Southeast of the Carolinas This is the system that's expected to become a nor'easter and affect 93L. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:32, 23 September 2008 (UTC) 94L.INVEST Up on NHC with medium risk of development in its own right. Could easily become a subtropical storm. --Patteroast 13:37, 24 September 2008 (UTC) :High-risk now, recon being sent, likely to make landfall in US. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:51, 24 September 2008 (UTC) ::As what is not clear, but yes all of the models are in pretty good agreement that Myrtle Beach is gonna have a shitty weekend (Sunday might be nice though). This forecast, however, offers little time for it to get its act together. It's improved a bit during the day so it's possible. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:32, 25 September 2008 (UTC) :::This thing's pretty strong though...almost hurricane-strength! 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:47, 25 September 2008 (UTC) ::::Given another 24 hrs, it would have done it...IMO. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 13:50, 26 September 2008 (UTC) AoI: NE of Bermuda This may look destined to become subtropical or extratropical or an ULL, but just look at the models. They agree on this system exploding near the Azores, then perhaps heading back west to affect the Canadian Maritimes. This could be interesting. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:32, 23 September 2008 (UTC) :Based on the models, I predict a cat. 1 strength subtropical storm making landfall around Lunenburg, Nova Scotia on October 2. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:11, 23 September 2008 (UTC) ::You know, after this whole season is over, I'm going to count how many hurricanes we *actually* have had, and how many we'd have had if all your predictions had all been confirmed...;-)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:06, 24 September 2008 (UTC) ::There's no such thing as a subtropical hurricane, Astro. Bob rulz 03:34, 24 September 2008 (UTC) :::It actually has happened before. Link and track. (Not that I think it's likely to happen again anytime soon.) --Patteroast 13:34, 24 September 2008 (UTC) ::::Is it became 94L.INVEST? Storm's Eye 13:37, 24 September 2008 (UTC) :::::Ok. Got it. It's above this. LOL Storm's Eye 15:18, 24 September 2008 (UTC) :::I'm revising my forecast. 17 named storms and 5 retired names. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:55, 24 September 2008 (UTC) Week Four Will a stormless (namewise) week be followed by a stormy one?--L.E./ 16:34, 24 September 2008 (UTC) AoI: Bay of Campeche Rainbands from that large Pacific system. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:59, 24 September 2008 (UTC) :Just rain. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:37, 25 September 2008 (UTC) ::Low-risk on NHC TWO. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:14, 26 September 2008 (UTC) :::"No signs of organization at this time",they say.--L.E./ 00:57, 26 September 2008 (UTC) ::::To close to land...next! -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 13:51, 26 September 2008 (UTC) AoI: East of Barbados Could be the Cape Verde System, large wave behind 93L. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:59, 24 September 2008 (UTC) :Wind shear sux. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:37, 25 September 2008 (UTC) AoI: Central Atlantic A rather condensed pocket of convection. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:59, 24 September 2008 (UTC) :Astro, you really need to find something to do. I worry about you sometimes. If you stare at that screen long enough, you're gonna start seeing pink elephants and purple clouds. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:37, 25 September 2008 (UTC) AoI: SW of Cape Verde A new wave has rolled off. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:48, 25 September 2008 (UTC) Program for use in tropical cyclone QPF ..but weather weenies might like it too. heheheh It's a series of scripts that are run in-house through a GUI named cliqr (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/web/cliqr.html), and it runs for all ATCF-entered invests. It shows the rainfall graphics for the systems that most closely match ongoing invests, with greater weight placed on location, size (ROCI), and forward motion than the other parameters. If nothing else, you can look at the list of matches and see where they went. Thegreatdr 23:41, 6 August 2008 (UTC) :Ooh, grown-up toys, yay! -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:13, 7 August 2008 (UTC) Retirements at a glance So, now with six named storms, it seems linke we can discuss retirements now. Here is my take so far: *Arthur - 10% - damage not severe *Bertha - 7% - minimal damage *Cristobal - 5% - foregettable, hardly caused any damage *Dolly - 60% - caused over $1 billion in damage, and 21 deaths *Eduoard - 10% - damage total unknown, but probably not severe *Fay - 75% - caused over 100 deaths, severe damage possible. Interestingly, this could be the first time the same letter in the same list is retired twice, as Fay replaced Fran for the 2002 season. What are your thoughts? 00:57, 20 August 2008 (UTC) :I'm having a hard time corroborating the 100+ deaths from Fay. Most of the sources I'm finding are suggesting 14, and that the original count from Haiti was greatly exaggerated. I'd wait till damage figures are in, but right now I'd put Fay at more like 25% based on what I know right now. I think I'd also nudge Dolly down to 50%, as the death toll/damage estimates are not ''exceptionally high and the affected countries (US and Mexico) seem to be somewhat conservative with nominating names for retirement. Albireo 15:59, 20 August 2008 (UTC) ::By the way, Fay did not replace Fran in the 2002 season, it replaced it in the 1996 season, so this wouldn't be the first time. Here are my estimates: ::Arthur: 4% - It wasn't that bad, and storms cause mudslides all the time in Central America. ::Bertha: 3% - Although it broke a few records, damage in Bermuda wasn't severe. ::Cristobal: 2% - Damage minimal, although this is the only storm so far to follow the Gulf Stream, and it caused some flooding in Nova Scotia, but not much. ::Dolly: 49% - I'm not going to place any bets on this storm, as damage wasn't really that bad, and most flooding occured inland while it was a depression. However, it is still a devastating storm, which caused over 1 billion in damage, so it has a good chance nevertheless. ::Edouard: 6% - Although hurricane watches were originally issued, it never became a hurricane and was really not that bad. ::Fay: 29% 43% - Damages in the US and Cuba were minimal, storms kill dozens in Haiti all the time and not get retired, the bus crash in the Dominican Republic was indirect, but each country does have some chance of retiring it, and it's not done yet. Update: severe flooding in Florida and other places. ::Gustav: (tenative) 78% 77% 80% - Based on the current forecast, but still too early to tell. Update: over 60 deaths in Haiti, massive evacuation initiated in Louisiana.2007Astro'sHurricane 00:53, 27 August 2008 (UTC) ::Hanna: (tenative) 52% 70% 81% - It hasn't done anything yet, but I dunno, I just have a bad feeling about this one... Update: Nearly 140 540 deaths in Haiti. ::Ike: (tenative) 80% 94% - I know it hasn't done anything yet, but it could seriously wreck parts of Florida and the Gulf. Update: Massive devastation in Texas.2007Astro'sHurricane 00:32, 6 September 2008 (UTC) ::Josephine: (tenative) 21% 6% 2% - It's way too early to tell, and it looks like a dud, but there is a chance it may affect Bermuda and Atlantic Canada. Update: Dissapated, but remnants are still existing. Update: Only some breezes in Cape Verde to speak of. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:32, 6 September 2008 (UTC) 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:05, 29 August 2008 (UTC) ::So, there you have it. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:12, 20 August 2008 (UTC) Just a comment on the question of whether a name with the same letter has been retired from the same list more than once... it's happened multiple times already. Allen > Andrew (x2) > Alex. Alicia > Allison (x3) > Andrea. Frederic > Fabian (x4) > Fred (upcoming). And most strikingly the back-to-back Marilyn > Michelle > Melissa. --Patteroast 07:18, 21 August 2008 (UTC) :When was the last time a tropical storm was retired? One and only Allison? Seems Fay has way to go to reach that. However, if the track swifts a bit more to the south Big Easy might get in troubles. -- 21:06, 21 August 2008 (UTC) You took my title. *Arthur: 5%. 9 deaths total and a fair bit of damage. Neither of these are really substantial criterion for retiring a storm. *Bertha: 2%. It was a certainly notable tropical cyclone, but that's all it has to its name is notability. It only caused three deaths, and none of these were in Bermuda. *Cristobal: 1%. Honestly. The thing did negligibly little. If Chantal wasn't retired last year (and it wasn't), Cristobal stands no chance at all. *Dolly: 45%. This goes off estimated damages being equal to or less than final. If the estimates are greater than actual, it's just a 25%. Fair death toll. *Edouard: 1%. Ladies and gentlemen...what on Earth did this thing do? *Fay: 10%, possibly higher. Fair death toll. Will wait for damage reports. *Gustav: 88%. Made a mess of the Caribbean. High death toll and damages. *Hanna: 85%. What on EARTH happened here?!? This thing ALONE killed more people than ALL OF 2007!!! I hate to do this, but it's got lower chances than Gustav for the sadly unavoidable reason that it's Haiti. But still, axe it. *Ike: ?? *Josephine: 0%. Negligible. Jake52 01:27, 23 August 2008 (UTC) :*Arthur: 3%: Nothing out of the ordinary, your bog standard storm hitting a Central America coast. :*Bertha: 12%: Broke a record or two, scared Bermuda. Not much damage though :*Cristobal: 2%: What did it do again? :*Dolly: 34%: Whacked south Texas. :*Edouard: 10%: Made Houston sit up and take note. Didn't do much in the end though. :*Fay: 39% 59%: Pounded Florida with severe flooding in places. Damage in Carribean was nothing unusual. New Orleans a little lucky not to get a stronger hit due to it staying over the Florida Panhandle. :*Gustav: 62%: Gave New Orleans a scare, but caused flooding to the West. Damage in Haiti :*Hanna: 46%: Damage in Haiti & Bahamas, worsened by... :*Ike: 100%: Prob retired in the Carribean anyway, looks like it's going to be very bad on US Landfall. Death toll set to be higher than Katrina? :*Josephine: 0%: It existed. Not much more I can say about it. - Salak 04:01, 26 August 2008 (UTC), UPDATED: 01:01, 13 September 2008 (UTC) ::Eric's divine and always superior pontification: ::*Arthur: 5% - just for catching NHC with its pants around its ankles...and setting a really cool record too. ::*Bertha: 9% - I've always wanted to visit Bermuda, apparently Bertha felt the same way. She had a jolly old time out there for about a month. What is it about Berthas that make them so hard to kill? ::*Cristobal: 4% - Ooh, a storm brushing by the Outer Banks and doing absolutely nothing! Gold star for originality, Cris. ::*Dolly: 43% - Kicked the shit out of South Padre but they came out of it reasonably well. ::*Ed: 10% - nuisance storm. Pissed on a couple people in North Texas but that's about it. ::*Fay: 34% - I think Fay's raised the sea level of the Gulf of Mexico about 8 feet. Pretty much every county in the state of Florida got at least two inches of rain from this thing. ::*Gustav: 87% - Gustav gave Cuba a shellacking and those floods in Haiti were really bad. Louisiana actually fared the best of the three. With 125 deaths and $10 billion in damage, I'd be stunned if Gustav isn't retired. ::*Hanna: 85% - Man, the sitation in Haiti has turned into an epic catastrophe. This is Haiti's worst hit since Jeanne. Gonaives is a hellhole, simply put. If 535 dead doesn't earn retirement, then the WMO needs to be lined up and shot. ::*Ike: 92% - Wow, what a storm! Very bad floods again again hit the Greater Antilles hard. It has just been a disasterous season for them. The situation in Texas is not much better right now. The destruction on the Bolivar Peninsula is epic. Ike effectively wiped four towns from the face of the Earth. This is turning out to be the storm of the season. It's been a long time since we've seen three (four if you count Fay) consecutive devastating storms like this. '04 didn't do it, '05 didn't do it. This is unbelievable. ::*Josephine: 2% - At least the Verdes got a nice breeze. ::Will revise as the season goes along. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:47, 25 August 2008 (UTC) ::I think that Fay should be retired... if any of you lived in Orlando you'd understand the extent of the flooding that occured. Lakes that were 3 feet low a week ago are about 8 feet too high now and 4 landfalls... I cant' wait till the next one! 09:08, 25 August 2008 (UTC) :::Having just looked at photos of Florida after Fay, I've upped my figure for its retirement. I've heard quite little about the impact of it here (UK) though; think I've seen it mentioned in the news briefly twice. - Salak 03:58, 26 August 2008 (UTC) ::::I disagree. I don't think it should be retired and I definately don't think it will be retired. The flooding wasn't severe enough or widespread enough, nor did it cause enough damage. The fact that it wasn't a hurricane doesn't help. Tropical Storm Bret in 1993 killed 124 people in Venezuela in catastrophic floods (the exact same number as Ivan) and wasn't retired. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:38, 27 August 2008 (UTC) My own totally non-scientific predictions thus far: *Arthur: 0% *Bertha: 0% *Cristobal: 0% - Let's face it, all three had pretty negligible impact in terms of damage/fatalities, and these are what get storms retired. No sense in giving them a piddly 1 or 2% chance when it ain't gonna happen. *Dolly: 40% - Relatively high damage but nothing eye popping. *Edouard: 0% - As above. *Fay: 33% - Helluva wet storm, but I'm not willing to up the odds unless some striking damage figures come out. *Gustav: 100% - Based on damages to Cuba, large-scale evacuations and disruptions. Damage estimates over $20B, hard to imagine not retiring this one. *Hanna: 95% - Over 500 dead, she'd have to pull a Gordon not to be retired. *Ike: 100% - Damage estimates over $25B mean Ike is a shoe-in for retirement. *Josephine: 0% - Total dud. Really what it all boils down to, for me, are the criteria upon which storms get retired. Sure, they may have broken a record or been a nuisance, but really these are not things that storms get retired for. To date, I'd not be surprised if no storms are retired - but with September looming and Gustav looking dangerous, I'm sure that sentiment will change. Albireo 16:28, 15 September 2008 (UTC) I'm new but heres mine perdiction so far: *Arthur: 0% - A little tiny storm that hit mexico and was brought to life by a pacific hurricane not happenin *Bertha: 1% - sure the long lived july storm but did nothing but died in iceland *Dolly: 42% Even though its an estimate its possible come on people *Edouard: 5% Face it this storm should have been retired back in 96 and I was 2 years old *Fay: 48% - If this name gets retired im runnin up the hills like allison *Gustav: 100% - Since we havent had an official cat 4 in a while this will be it for Gustav, estimate 20.0 billions *Hanna: 95% - 535 deaths If noel got retired last year this is the next name and if it isn't WMO is on crack *Ike: 100% - This thing just raped the shit out of Texas i mean OMG * Josephine: 0% - Turned around to myself turns outs shes a dud I excluded cristobal on the list because it hardly did anything Looks like this season already has another hurricane to my perdictions this season will be big. J.T 2:54, 3 September 2008 (UTC) *Arthur - 0% *Bertha - 0% *Cristobal - 1% *Dolly - 60% Historically would have been retired. Wait for damage estimates. *Edouard - 10% Unlikely. *Fay - 20% Fair amount of Caribbean flooding, but not much. *Gustav - 100% Really obvious. *Hanna - 85% Over 500 dead in Haiti. No one wants another Gordon, and Noel was retired last year for a lot less. Probably gone. *Ike - Can't say for certain right now, but the forecasts look nasty. If it follows the forecasts, 90+% *Josephine - 0% --- Let's be realistic here. *Arthur - 0% *Bertha - 0% *Cristobal - 0% *Dolly - 30% *Edouard - 0% *Fay - 35% *Gustav - 95% *Hanna - 65% *Ike - 100% (deaths in Haiti, damage to Cuba, damage to the U.S.) *Josephine - 0% Bob rulz :I note that Ike managed to kill 47 or 48 in Haiti despite never getting very near...what's the total for hurricane dead in Haiti so far this year?It seems something in the geography or infrastructure there puts Haitians at particular risk.Do their nominations for retirement usually get honored?--L.E./ 19:25, 8 September 2008 (UTC) ::The last total I saw put the dead at over 1,000 from a month of storms but that ''may be an overestimate. I'm guessing it could still easily be at least 600. I'm not sure if Haiti even requests storms for retirement, but look up Gordon in 1994. Killed over 1,100 in Haiti yet wasn't retired. A travesty in my opinion. Bob rulz 01:03, 11 September 2008 (UTC) My Predictions: *Arthur - 0% *Bertha - 0% *Cristobal - 0% *Dolly - 40%: If the 1,200,000,000 damage prediction is correct, I could see Dolly being retired. *Edouard - 0% *Fay - 25%: Decent amount of flooding in Florida; made landfall in Florida 4 times. We'll see. *Gustav - 100%: I cannot see any reason why Gustav would not be retired. *Hanna - 90%: I know, I know, Gordon wasn't retired, but with all the public backlash the WMO experienced from that, I can't see them making that mistake again. *Ike - 100%: Heavily damaged nearly all of Northeastern Texas, especially Galveston. Obvious candidate for retirement. *Josephine - 0% There you go. |'C A I N E R'||''ninety-one| 19:39, 13 September 2008 (UTC) :Arthur - No. :Bertha - Bermuda has gone through much, much, much worse. :Cristobal - No. :Dolly - A very slight maybe - while damages are considerable, one billion is no longer as much as it used to be. :Edouard - No. :Fay - Wasn't a great storm, but there's not much there to support retirement. :Gustav - Yes. Definitely yes. The US is definitely going to submit a 15 billion dollar name for retirement, and the WMO will definitely retire it. :Hanna - Probable, but Haiti doesn't much like (or whatever) to recommend storms for retirement, else there would be plenty more off-limits names in the Atlantic. If it was anywhere else, it would most likely be a lock. :Ike - The damage estimates are really, really high, and the damage pictures are really, really nasty. (That's a yes, in case you were wondering.) :Josephine - No. Squarethecircle 20:51, 23 September 2008 (UTC) Cleaning up the clutter I've just archived the August discussion (excluding active storms) and Fay to their own archive pages; apologies if I wasn't supposed to do that. The page was just getting way too cluttered for me. Probably want to give Gustav its archive page soon, too. Thoughts?--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 20:10, 2 September 2008 (UTC) :Agreed. I just archived some old July discussion last week. I would keep Gustav up for at least another week as aftermath reports come in. HPC is still issuing advisories on inland flood threats from the remnants of Gustav. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:50, 3 September 2008 (UTC) ::How about partially archiving and leaving the last two or three parts of it? Do we really still need the sub-section about Gustav-as-an-invest? --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:01, 3 September 2008 (UTC) :::Well just for the sake of keeping everything together and we don't have to keep it up much longer. I'd say by the time Ike is approaching landfall on the Gulf Coast (and the associated storm surge of posts come in) we should move Gus to a new home. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:10, 7 September 2008 (UTC) ::::Isn't it Hanna's turn now?--L.E./ 19:41, 11 September 2008 (UTC) :::::Yup. Think the remnants passed us here in the UK the other night. - Salak 11:34, 14 September 2008 (UTC) ::::::Archived Ike too, given that it went away a good while ago. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:02, 24 September 2008 (UTC) What are the Storm Floaters? I see that there are currently 3 GOES satellites active and http://kd4dcy.net/blog/?p=425 explains "The GOES satellite has one visible-light imaging system that is kept in reserve for tropical storm situations. That camera is kept zoomed and focused on the current tropical system of interest" So how are so many floaters listed on http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml and http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html? 14:23, 7 September 2008 (UTC) :I assume the camera can refocus to a given coordinate within just a few minutes or even seconds. It's not that each image is taken exactly simultaneously, just within the same 15 minute period. Those images can be put through a myriad of spectrums which you see in the variety of IRs (which have been fantastically expanded). I don't know this for certain, it's just what I assume is going on. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:05, 7 September 2008 (UTC) The Safir-Simpson Scale Seems to me the question has to be raised, but in the wake of Ike and the number of "Let's not run, it's only category 2"...should the scale be revised? It's useful enough, but when it becomes a pretext to ignore potentially devastating storms that happens to have somewhat weaker wind field, it's dangerous. Ike has made the point, for those who still missed it, that category and destructive potential were two, very, very different things (Katrina, for that matter - C-3 at landfall, after all)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 03:09, 17 September 2008 (UTC) :Problem is, what additional objective and measurable data do you want to add into the criteria? 04:35, 17 September 2008 (UTC) ::I agree, the SSHS is only useful for estimating possible wind damage, not surge or rain flooding damage. It would be useful if it said "surge of a cat. 5", etc. One should look at more than the wind and be more educated before deciding whether to evacuate. 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:21, 17 September 2008 (UTC) The SSHS is fairly analogous to the Richter Scale when talking about earthquakes. The Richter Scale is good for measuring raw seismic energy, just as the SSHS is good for measuring the raw intensity of a hurricane. While it and related scientific scales are still used within the scientific community to discuss the raw power of an earthquake, it's use by public agencies has diminished. The USGS favors the Modified Mercalli scale, which is a somewhat more subjective scale that is intended to measure the ''effect of an earthquake, not just its power. A similar scale for measuring the effect of a hurricane would be highly useful for governmental agencies, especially in issuing warnings to the public, as such a scale would be a better indicator of how damaging a storm will be, not just how intense. The problem the IP (4.154.0.95) brings up before is a valid one, but one that can be addressed. As has been pointed out, intensity and wind speed are only one facet of a hurricane's destructive potential. Other factors, such as inland flooding from rain and, more particularly, storm surge are important - in fact, storm surge is usually the most dangerous element of a tropical cyclone. It should not be too hard to develop a relatively good system of forecasting a storm's damage potential based on key factors such as intensity, size, forward speed and the like. A major weakness is the subjective nature in talking about "potential damage", but subjectivity need not be a major issue. The MM scale in earthquakes is measured in subjective terms, such as how hard it is to stand, how much things wobble, what sorts of structures are damaged. These are the things that truly interest the general public, rather than objective measures such as wind speed and pressure. Something like the following could be made up as a subjective scale for tropical cyclones: Okay, so that was longer than I thought it would be :) Anyway, that's just an off the cuff example - but really I see no reason that a "subjective" scale cannot be developed that measures the predicted damage a storm will do, not just it's intensity. Might get people to take storms more seriously. Albireo 20:52, 17 September 2008 (UTC) :Just so you know, '04s Matthew and '05s Gert had exactly the same wind speed at peak intensity (40 knots) and there was little appreciable difference in their effects. The root of the problem here is that every storm is different. The damage never depends solely on wind speed. The wind speed, pressure gradient (the pressure difference between the low of the storm and the pressure of the surrounding environment), the size of the storm (as was the case with Ike), and the amount of diffluence in the atmosphere to fuel the rainstorms. Rain is an incredibly powerful killer. Water kills more people than any other entitiy (apart from time). It is very difficult to predict how much rain a storm will drop, because that depends on a lot of different things. The damage also hangs a lot on the location of landfall and the terrain. Foreward speed, too. So there really isn't a way you can categorize these systems until after they happen (like tornadoes). Nothing is cut and dry and no matter what scale you set up, there will still be holes where people think they're safe and they're not. That's why basically all storms making landfall need to be watched very carefully. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:02, 18 September 2008 (UTC) ::I do know, that's why I put them both up there in spite of having different effects :) I think that was the whole point, was to demonstrate that a storm's destructive potential has to do with a lot more than windspeed. While it is true there is no way to ''accurately forecast how much damage a storm can do, I believe there is a lot of benefit to the notion of placing anticipated damages on a numeric scale. How many folks refused to leave the Galveston area because Ike was "just a cat 2" storm? Let's face it: people's focus immediately zeros in on things like storm categories, and they tend not to notice the dire warnings later on in the forecast. Most people don't have the attention span to read a full forecast, so some kind of attention-grabbing system of saying "Forget the windspeed, this one is going to kick your ass" would do a lot of good in getting people to pack up and get the hell out. Albireo 15:42, 18 September 2008 (UTC) :::I get the concepet, trying to create a scale not based solely on wind speed, I'm just saying that's very difficult. Yes there are ways we can generally judge the destructive potential of one storm as opposed to another of the same Saffir-Simpson category but such a scale is very subjective and in meteorology, you do best you can to stay objective. The closest we could come to producing an objective scale like that is taking the wind speed, pressure gradient, wind radii, diffluence and general region of estimated landfall together to create a kind of "Combined Effects Severity Scale" for tropical cyclones, Classes I-V or I-VII or something and that's a lot of work getting all that data just to produce a classification for the storm. If there's a way to make something like that practical, I'm all for it, but I just don't think it really makes much sense right now. On top of that, what are we accomplishing? Confusing the public? The problem of people underestimating the power of these storms will never go away, IMO. Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph sustained winds barrelling for New Orleans and still thousands were in no hurry to leave. "We made it through all the storms in the past, why not again? The Gov't will protect us and give us what we need." Despite seeing recent disasters like Andrew, Charley and Ivan on the news, it's still hard for people to comprehend such a destructive force. They just don't want to believe the storm will be that bad. It's not a problem so much with the classification system as it is a problem with human psychology. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 05:47, 21 September 2008 (UTC)